{"id":17002,"date":"2025-05-21T08:08:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-21T12:08:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.colgate.edu\/magazine\/?p=17002"},"modified":"2025-05-19T14:40:32","modified_gmt":"2025-05-19T18:40:32","slug":"warming-winters-spell-change-for-antarctic-permafrost","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.colgate.edu\/magazine\/2025\/05\/21\/warming-winters-spell-change-for-antarctic-permafrost\/","title":{"rendered":"Warming Winters Spell Change for Antarctic Permafrost"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Colgate students discover alarming findings about Antarctica\u2019s stability<\/em><\/h2>\n\n\n
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\"Illustration\n\"
Illustration by Ben Konkol<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Antarctica is like no other place on Earth. The continent has been locked in glaciers for 34 million years, with a mere 1% of the land surface free of ice sheets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s Earth\u2019s radiator, central to how the planet maintains livable temperatures,\u201d says Joe Levy, associate professor of earth and environmental geosciences. \u201cThe long-held perception is that Antarctica, unlike the Arctic, is very stable and its permafrost isn\u2019t threatened.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Levy\u2019s newly published study in Antarctic Science<\/em>, however, reveals that Antarctica is changing in ways that will alter its influence on global climate and ocean patterns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study started as a senior class project in 2023. Levy asked students to read a paper about the effects of warming Arctic winters on permafrost and then look for evidence of similar trends in Antarctica. \u201cExisting Antarctic research all focused on summertime warming,\u201d says Levy. \u201cNo one thought we needed to look during the winter. The average temperature is -30 Celsius, after all.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The class analyzed publicly available wintertime data from 10 automated meteorological stations maintained through the McMurdo Dry Valleys Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Project, part of the National Science Foundation\u2019s LTER Program. \u201cYou don\u2019t have to go to Antarctica to be an Antarctic scientist, thanks to the amazing data they collect and publish,\u201d Levy says. \u201cMy students loved digging into these nearly real-time data sets and being part of the discovery process.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The students did indeed find consistent evidence of rising winter temperatures in the McMurdo Dry Valleys. At 1,900 square miles, the dry valleys comprise Antarctica\u2019s largest ice-free region. \u201cThey\u2019re our laboratory for understanding Antarctica\u2019s land-based processes, including how water and dissolved nutrients run off the soil into the Southern Ocean,\u201d Levy says. \u201cThey\u2019re also a model for how Antarctica could function in a future with drastically less ice.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The class\u2019s findings inspired Levy and Gavin Fowler \u201924, now a graduate student at the University of Chicago, to dig deeper. Fowler, who co-authored the new study, created the code to organize and analyze a massive amount of meteorological information: 30 years of soil temperature, air temperature, wind speed, and infrared radiation data collected by the 10 LTER stations. \u201cWe were blown away to find that not only were winters getting warmer \u2014 the rate of warming is greater in winter than summer,\u201d Levy says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When the permafrost can\u2019t freeze as deeply in winter, more melting and erosion can occur in summer whether summertime temperatures are increasing or not. \u201cThink of scooping ice cream that\u2019s frozen through. Then think about ice cream that hasn\u2019t been in the freezer long,\u201d Levy says. \u201cIt\u2019s softer and a lot easier to scoop. You reach lower levels and expose them more quickly. Then they melt more quickly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hurricane-like winter windstorms are known to push warmer air across the dry valleys. When Levy and Fowler removed wind from the data, however, they still saw \u201cbackground warming.\u201d \u201cThis demonstrates the air is getting warmer in winter independent of local weather in a particular valley,\u201d Levy says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cFor geoscientists, this is a wake-up call. We need to think differently and put aside preconceptions about Antarctica\u2019s stability,\u201d Levy says. \u201cStudents were instrumental in this project because they didn\u2019t bring those preconceived notions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over time, Antarctica may evolve from a cold desert reminiscent of the Martian landscape to an ecosystem akin to Arctic tundra. Levy projects that the first permafrost could completely thaw and vanish from Antarctica as early as 2130. \u201cIn geological terms, 2130 is remarkably close,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How this evolution will influence Earth\u2019s climate, oceans, and life in temperate zones over the coming decades will be an important topic for further research. Levy\u2019s own nearterm next steps include using satellite remote sensing and a network of ground sensors to learn how widespread wintertime warming is across the continent and confirm the rate of warming in locations outside the dry valleys.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis project confirms in my mind that the change is inevitable. That means the coming loss of a very special place,\u201d Levy says. \u201cBut if we hadn\u2019t realized what\u2019s happening to the permafrost now, we would\u2019ve been blindsided by the time the effects are significant.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He adds: \u201cAntarctic scientists do what we do to prepare people everywhere<\/em> for what the future holds. The more we know about how Antarctica is changing, the more we can prepare.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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